Should You Invest in Paid Search Ads Over the Holidays? What CPC, Competition, and Timing Really Mean

Every year as the holidays approach, we start getting the same calls and emails:

“Should we be running Google ads right now?”

Sometimes the answer is yes. Other times, the most honest answer is not yet — or not in the way you’re thinking. Paid search can be a powerful growth lever, but it’s also one of the fastest ways to burn budget if the timing, setup, or expectations are off. The holiday season adds another layer of complexity, and understanding how it affects search behaviour, cost-per-click (CPC), and competition is critical before spending a dollar.

Paid search — particularly Google Search ads — is fundamentally driven by supply and demand. When more businesses bid on the same keywords, CPCs rise. When fewer advertisers are competing, costs can come down. But lower CPCs don’t automatically mean better results, and higher CPCs don’t automatically mean ads won’t work. Google also weighs ad relevance, landing page quality, historical performance, and expected click-through rate, which means strategy almost always matters more than raw budget.

The holiday season shifts that balance in subtle ways.

For some industries, competition increases significantly. Consumer-facing services, retail, home services, and any business tied to year-end decisions often see more advertisers enter the auction. That extra competition can drive up CPCs, especially for high-intent keywords. In other sectors — particularly B2B or longer sales-cycle businesses — things can quiet down as decision-makers step away. That can lead to less competitive auctions and, in some cases, cheaper clicks.

But cheaper clicks don’t guarantee success.

One of the biggest misconceptions we see is the idea that a lower CPC automatically means it’s a good time to advertise. In reality, CPC only tells you how much it costs to get someone to your site — not whether they’re ready to take action. During the holidays, user intent often changes. Some people are in full “buy now” mode. Others are researching, bookmarking, or comparing options they won’t act on until the new year. A click in December doesn’t behave the same way as a click in March, and conversion rates often reflect that difference.

This is where context matters.

We’ve seen holiday paid search perform well for businesses that solve immediate, time-sensitive problems. When someone needs a service now — whether because of urgency, compliance deadlines, or seasonal demand — holidays don’t slow that behaviour down. We’ve also seen strong results when the goal isn’t just immediate sales, but learning. The holiday period can be a useful time to test keyword demand, validate messaging, and gather conversion data that informs smarter campaigns in Q1.

On the flip side, there are plenty of situations where we recommend waiting or scaling back. If a business isn’t operationally ready to handle leads — slower response times, reduced staffing, or unclear intake processes — paid ads can create friction instead of growth. We also see challenges when search interest spikes but buying intent doesn’t follow. In those cases, investing in SEO groundwork, website improvements, or analytics setup often delivers more long-term value than forcing ad spend into a soft conversion window.

And then there’s the hardest conversation of all: ads don’t fix everything.

Paid search can’t compensate for unclear positioning, a weak offer, or a confusing website. All ads do is amplify what already exists. If the foundation isn’t solid, running ads — during the holidays or otherwise — usually just exposes those issues faster.

This is why timing matters as much as tactics. Being “on Google” isn’t the goal. Being on Google at the right moment, with the right message, for the right audience is where results come from. The holiday season can create opportunity for some businesses and unnecessary risk for others. There’s no universal yes or no — only informed decisions based on demand, readiness, and goals.

At Charcoal, we spend just as much time advising clients not to run ads as we do launching and managing campaigns. Sometimes paid search is the right investment. Sometimes preparation is the smarter move. Knowing the difference is where real value lives.